Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jasmine Clark be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d735538097156afa2b5539f33e9f8ea73dfdfdc6de504032958ee23f2351bbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9c…b418backed No | 64c | 1,106$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 36c | 388$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed Yes | 36c | 379$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 36c | 339$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.96 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked No | 9c | 270.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 66c | 212.18$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 67c | 185$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 26c | 174.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 75c | 160.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 33c | 157$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.67 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 33c | 135$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 14c | 132.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 24c | 129.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed Yes | 77c | 120.65$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 12c | 114.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 77c | 110.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 55c | 109.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 25c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 80c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +144%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 66.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 65.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 30.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 75c | 25.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed Yes | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bd…e77cbacked Yes | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jasmine Clark be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?this page
- Will David Scott be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?No won
- Will Emanuel Jones be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?No won
- Will Everton Blair Jr. be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.