Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dbe7549fbbe1ff01659bab0a49d60e16daa7b867f08c9ef51ad86f3fdf31cd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 1,344$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 911.9$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.31 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 20c | 626.55$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.03 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 526.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 75c | 402.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 363.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 313.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 294$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 284$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 283.66$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 231.86$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 193.56$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 175.46$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 23c | 109.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 27c | 109.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 107.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 33c | 96.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 90.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 89.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 26c | 87.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 85.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 77c | 84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed Yes | 25c | 81.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 26c | 63.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 79c | 60.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 54.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…0783backed Yes | 26c | 54.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 38.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed No | 78c | 37.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 77c | 36.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 36.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 34.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 74c | 22.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 22.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 78c | 20.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 78c | 16.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.