Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2692408ef0481ec68e9fa239678fb486806277b4eb1d8b75c550782bae8048af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 45c | 2,954$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.26 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 2,040$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,407$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 1,264$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 1,189$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 46c | 720.22$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.69 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 48c | 541.4$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.83 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 513.25$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 51c | 397.05$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.15 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 388.74$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes | 53c | 378$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 371$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 45c | 359.33$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.05 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 346$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 304.96$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 300$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 266.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 250.49$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 233.56$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.37 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 49c | 203.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked No | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 199.54$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 198.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 194$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 161.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 155.25$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 58c | 150.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 148$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 48c | 140.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 137.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 125.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 76c | 122.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 25c | 120.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 41c | 109.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 45c | 102.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 60c | 90.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 59c | 87.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 48c | 86.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 81.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 81.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 53c | 72.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 50c | 72.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…df7cbacked Yes | 50c | 61.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 48c | 58.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 57.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 54c | 57.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 49c | 57.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4398…2257backed Yes | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 54.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…b089backed No | 56c | 52.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 38c | 51.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 63c | 49.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 48.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 49c | 47.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 52c | 45.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 44.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 40.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc396…66e6backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…b377backed Yes | 52c | 38.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 38.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 36.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 52c | 36.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 35.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488d…4ec8backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 33.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8a54…2418backed No | 56c | 32.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 49c | 31.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 30.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 64c | 29.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 28.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 71c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 58c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 25.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 50c | 24.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc693…e603backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 50c | 23.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…a1f1backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533b…aca9backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…df40backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.