Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x330cd49f97b8eb0e1770a566fe36d11da698ecfed492399c7c243338245a374d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 37c | 2,830$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.32 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 2,286$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.85 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 69c | 1,309$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.9 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 58c | 1,154$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 1,032$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 932.11$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 818$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 32c | 621.11$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.97 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes | 46c | 613.47$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 582.79$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 3c | 527.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 49c | 450.61$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.23 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 68c | 413.42$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.03 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 34c | 370.52$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.1 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 37c | 322.37$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 321$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 60c | 316.89$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.9 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 291.27$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 285.49$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 281.35$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.62 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 254.9$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 246.3$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 224.18$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 221.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 45c | 211.16$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.19 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 71c | 200$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 176.81$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 170.85$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.74 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 150.01$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 69c | 135$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 134.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 34c | 128.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 27c | 119.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 29c | 109.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 107$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 54c | 91.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 89.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 87.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 38c | 87.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 79.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 63c | 78.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 56c | 78.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…a71abacked Yes | 27c | 74.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 68.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…df7cbacked Yes | 38c | 64.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 76c | 58.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 69c | 57.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 28c | 57.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 54.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 53.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 24c | 50.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 69c | 47.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 76c | 46.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 24c | 46.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 43c | 46.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 65c | 45.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Yes | 55c | 45.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 44.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 75c | 44.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…821cbacked No | 49c | 40.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 40.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 40.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 38c | 39.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 31.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 30.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 70c | 30.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 55c | 30.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 60c | 28.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 28.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed No | 53c | 22.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 71c | 22.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 22.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 53c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ea…fe59backed No | 73c | 20.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 71c | 18.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 70c | 16.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed No | 71c | 15.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.