NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e1a1a07abb3116260d42d225c06d91239fad76a79c554cd323ab473eedb0b9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 51c | 73,973$37,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,416.05 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 49c | 60,392$29,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,599.99 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 9,382$4,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,779.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Over | 48c | 5,952$2,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,856.96 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…50f1backed Over | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed Under | 50c | 5,555$2,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,777.5 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 49c | 5,009$2,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,454.43 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 52c | 3,333$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.84 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 2,328$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.84 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Under | 49c | 1,854$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.54 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 1,500$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.15 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 622$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.78 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c1…b4afbacked Under | 51c | 600$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Over | 49c | 399.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 51c | 346.19$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.63 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 37c | 271.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.85 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 48c | 168$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Over | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf5…5948backed Under | 51c | 113$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…dc93backed Under | 54c | 89.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Under | 39c | 55.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…28e8backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f9…15eebacked Over | 48c | 48.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 45c | 46.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…d30fbacked Under | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20a…044dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Rockets won
- Rockets vs. JazzRockets won
- Rockets vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 228.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 229.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 232.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-11.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.