NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee8048439402d84626981cc9d432f7fedf5c13e75cb9050f3d9e88bd381eca51

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $51,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,237

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,179 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Over	50c	16,146$8,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,073	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,000	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Under	55c	9,000$4,921 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,079.38	484	48.8%236 W · 248 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	45c	7,833$3,555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,555.12	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under	50c	5,928$2,964 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,964	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd29c…d4efbacked Under	52c	4,100$2,132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,968	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+18%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c50…a2a9backed Over	48c	4,100$1,968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,968	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48a9…cd76backed Over	46c	3,800$1,748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,748	32	65.6%21 W · 11 L	+4.7wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf04f…103dbacked Under	54c	3,800$2,052 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,748	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	+4.0wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3aff…c55ebacked Over	51c	3,725$1,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,899.74	59	39%23 W · 36 L	-3.9wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7397…860cbacked Over	45c	3,500$1,575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,575	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.9wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd234…90b0backed Under	55c	3,500$1,925 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,575	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	50c	2,615$1,301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,314.52	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Over	51c	1,966$1,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,005	84	38.1%32 W · 52 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	49c	1,406$689 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$717.06	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	50c	1,000$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$505	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under	50c	810$409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	45c	700$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	49c	435.38$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.45	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	49c	400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	48c	259.5$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.94	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	54c	240$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.4	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Under	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6611…17e7backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x068f…4594backed Under	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Under	50c	168$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Over	50c	160$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Over	50c	160$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	129	52.7%68 W · 61 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Over	45c	140$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	-6.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	46c	121.26$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.78	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f2…7f2ebacked Under	55c	115$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc566…f8d7backed Under	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	165	47.3%78 W · 87 L	+8.0wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Over	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	165	52.7%87 W · 78 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacdb…750fbacked Over	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	46c	79$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.72	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x003b…4da0backed Over	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	-6.6wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x895d…4970backed Under	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	126	46.8%59 W · 67 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Over	45c	53.31$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.99	608	34.4%209 W · 399 L	+8.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf581…0892backed Over	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	74	44.6%33 W · 41 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Over	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15a3…718ebacked Over	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	113	51.3%58 W · 55 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a9c…598dbacked Over	51c	49.01$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	44	65.9%29 W · 15 L	+5.6wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x19f9…15eebacked Over	57c	49$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.93	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+2.2wins	+0.12per pick	60cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45fb…1289backed Over	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	+3.9wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Over	45c	27.18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	172	50%86 W · 86 L	+7.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd95…52fbbacked Over	53c	26.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	139	38.8%54 W · 85 L	-14.7wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe045…c466backed Over	47c	22.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424b…ed19backed Under	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Rockets vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event