NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-12.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0337081db54e727996379bbbbfbf9cbe330481e90051a6066f34a37ab0d5c290

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Rocketsof Rockets, Jazz
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $22,198
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,154

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,198 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Rockets	49c	6,939$3,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,538.78	123	41.5%51 W · 72 L	-8.6wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Rockets	46c	4,972$2,287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,684.52	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz	51c	3,750$1,913 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,912.5	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Jazz	54c	3,493$1,886 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,886.22	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets	48c	3,094$1,477 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,616.61	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jazz	54c	2,641$1,426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,425.87	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Rockets	46c	2,000$920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,080	270	51.5%139 W · 131 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Jazz	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,059.74	154	61.7%95 W · 59 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf58d…914abacked Jazz	53c	1,597$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850	138	60.1%83 W · 55 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	51c	1,375$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.14	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Rockets	47c	954.54$449 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$505.91	240	48.3%116 W · 124 L	-13.4wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Jazz	54c	500$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf029…47acbacked Jazz	52c	405.06$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.63	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.28per pick	53cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Jazz	54c	333$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.82	294	58.5%172 W · 122 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Jazz	54c	300$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz	53c	221.93$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.58	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Rockets	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Rockets	46c	212$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.48	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b7d4backed Rockets	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Rockets	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Jazz	53c	126.42$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a06…9ccfbacked Rockets	47c	126.42$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Jazz	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc695…0371backed Jazz	52c	77.99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.55	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08f1…196ebacked Rockets	48c	56.25$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.25	165	43.6%72 W · 93 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Rockets	48c	55$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.6	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Jazz	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19a7…3ec1backed Jazz	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd6f…e887backed Jazz	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	83	51.8%43 W · 40 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa905…732dbacked Rockets	48c	38.1$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.81	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Rockets	48c	37.25$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.37	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Rockets	45c	36.98$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.34	930	41.9%390 W · 540 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd87b…946dbacked Rockets	47c	27.66$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.66	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x490e…6ea7backed Jazz	55c	24.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.74	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-4.6wins	-0.13per pick	59cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Rockets	55c	24.44$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.97	121	56.2%68 W · 53 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Jazz	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	635	55.6%353 W · 282 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rockets (-12.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event