NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-11.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x365b000c3ce300910c02f965f485721d89d5f68e88730e7056d816db879fd9fd

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Rocketsof Rockets, Jazz
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $100,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $101,946

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,280 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x68dd…f0b2backed Jazz	48c	35,231$16,917 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,916.82	513	50.1%257 W · 256 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Rockets	54c	29,408$15,797 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,611.1	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Rockets	52c	12,069$6,276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,793.21	363	51.2%186 W · 177 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x010c…62bbbacked Rockets	52c	11,163$5,805 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,358.46	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Rockets	51c	10,915$5,567 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,348.02	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Jazz	48c	10,000$4,799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,799.16	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Jazz	49c	7,205$3,530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,530.45	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+12.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz	46c	7,152$3,290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,290	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets	52c	5,215$2,712 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,503.12	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b7…35d6backed Rockets	52c	4,808$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,307.69	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.21per pick	50cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f5e…9bd5backed Jazz	48c	4,200$2,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,016	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8caf…13d0backed Rockets	52c	4,200$2,184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,016	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x185c…fa2fbacked Rockets	52c	4,100$2,132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,968	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71ea…a8eebacked Jazz	48c	4,100$1,968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,968	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz	46c	3,750$1,725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,725	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Jazz	46c	3,478$1,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,599.88	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz	46c	2,009$925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$925.43	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Jazz	48c	1,939$924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$923.93	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4862…1a17backed Rockets	51c	1,502$766 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$736.08	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Jazz	51c	1,500$765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	48c	1,123$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534.81	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Jazz	47c	1,112$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.87	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Rockets	51c	800$411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$389	275	47.6%131 W · 144 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdab0…2fe9backed Rockets	64c	706$452 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.16	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Jazz	36c	700$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Jazz	49c	612.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	77	31.2%24 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306a…0d29backed Rockets	52c	600$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-5.0wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Jazz	53c	399.99$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.99	160	45%72 W · 88 L	+9.7wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fde…66b2backed Rockets	53c	386.72$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.72	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Jazz	49c	378.88$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.65	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Rockets	53c	377.36$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.36	271	61.3%166 W · 105 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Jazz	48c	309.97$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.78	272	47.8%130 W · 142 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x744b…848ebacked Rockets	52c	309.62$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.62	145	52.4%76 W · 69 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Jazz	47c	300$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	528	44.7%236 W · 292 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd8d…a108backed Rockets	52c	288.46$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.46	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rockets	45c	255.25$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.39	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa6c…e935backed Jazz	55c	255.25$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.39	65	43.1%28 W · 37 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Rockets	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	110	44.5%49 W · 61 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd005…56a2backed Rockets	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Jazz	46c	198.04$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.1	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Jazz	47c	180.98$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.68	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa26…c10abacked Rockets	52c	180.1$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.45	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98da…a9ebbacked Jazz	49c	163.27$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Jazz	49c	161.63$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	84	39.3%33 W · 51 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Jazz	49c	153.06$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	163	45.4%74 W · 89 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Rockets	44c	140$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.9	930	41.9%390 W · 540 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Jazz	36c	139.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.39	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	-6.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Jazz	49c	112.22$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.99	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48f8…9166backed Jazz	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	171	45.6%78 W · 93 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae4…a127backed Jazz	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	110	41.8%46 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec5…9fe0backed Rockets	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	168	53%89 W · 79 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacdb…750fbacked Rockets	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee7…0ba8backed Rockets	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Jazz	48c	99.21$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.6	608	34.4%209 W · 399 L	+8.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Jazz	49c	98.67$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.35	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz	46c	97$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.62	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf581…0892backed Rockets	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	74	44.6%33 W · 41 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf888…d04ebacked Rockets	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Rockets	51c	93.65$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.89	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Rockets	22c	92.59$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.22	390	18.2%71 W · 319 L	+27.6wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x644c…f6c7backed Rockets	53c	92$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.24	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked Rockets	49c	86$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.86	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x897d…90c9backed Jazz	48c	80$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	165	59.4%98 W · 67 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f22…3630backed Rockets	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Rockets	52c	69.6$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.41	408	53.7%219 W · 189 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b8…68a5backed Rockets	53c	64.15$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.15	65	56.9%37 W · 28 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Rockets	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	285	47.7%136 W · 149 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee2f…7677backed Rockets	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	29	69%20 W · 9 L	+4.2wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Jazz	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	127	43.3%55 W · 72 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x774e…8f8cbacked Jazz	48c	48$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca32…7aa9backed Jazz	49c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Jazz	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Rockets	51c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	246	53.3%131 W · 115 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Rockets	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Rockets	52c	34.62$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.62	71	40.8%29 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Jazz	49c	34.49$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…97dfbacked Rockets	53c	32.08$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.08	162	53.1%86 W · 76 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a4…75f3backed Rockets	53c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.1	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f1…6349backed Rockets	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	173	50.9%88 W · 85 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20c7…f12fbacked Rockets	52c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Rockets	52c	29.99$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	244	54.1%132 W · 112 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa916…4f30backed Rockets	52c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	158	41.1%65 W · 93 L	-12.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd20…213cbacked Rockets	52c	20.23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.71	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c2b…c3bebacked Rockets	52c	20.21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.68	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc907…fac1backed Rockets	53c	19.87$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.34	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rockets (-11.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event