TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,263
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,263 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes43c1,893$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.311,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No58c1,378$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.581,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes34c1,354$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.051,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No61c1,335$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.698,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c1,117$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.398,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes29c1,058$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.061,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No74c855.88$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.622,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes47c732.85$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.425,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No56c599.99$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.9956543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No57c497.03$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.061,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c473.16$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.184,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes44c434.17$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.594,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No68c401.6$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.993,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No60c399.14$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.754,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No60c395$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.325,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed Yes28c332.31$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.7942754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19555954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c249.39$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No75c246.31$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2856…c8f9backed Yes54c238.48$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.164753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No65c222.03$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3263255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c217.03$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.473,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No68c198.89$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5377555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No57c185.6$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.792,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c176.13$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.999,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes36c170.61$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.191,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No50c170.24$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c165.77$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.779,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No63c160$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.81,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes54c145$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.852839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c136.36$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.324,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes42c128.52$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.061,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b33…9f80backed Yes36c123.63$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.744141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes45c115.13$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.374839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No71c109.79$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.286,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes52c107.5$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.486,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No57c105$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.851,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes18c104.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.41,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes52c103.2$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.022,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes22c99.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9972837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No54c98.25$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.524,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No16c92.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.934,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe373…3736backed Yes37c91.18$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.441250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No52c89.28$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8370741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No62c85.8$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5894552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No62c85.77$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c84.31$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.233,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes34c80.47$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0797152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x418a…64c0backed No56c73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.885343.4%23 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No60c67.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3777851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No60c66.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.562,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed Yes24c59.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9522064.5%142 W · 78 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed Yes30c54.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4416859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No55c51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.971,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c50.78$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.055,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.72,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4028455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ca…59eebacked No57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.55729.8%17 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.33,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked No56c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.217352%90 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8471…5566backed Yes41c44.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.973959%23 W · 16 L+7.3wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+38.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked No70c43.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5954335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No65c43.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.291,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No54c41.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5542762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No61c40.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1825954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes40c39.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.621,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfeab…aa66backed Yes43c39.4$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.461442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes44c38.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.717835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No55c36.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes38c34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.151,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf9a…72b2backed No71c33.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.53842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes63c32.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.892,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No55c32.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.832,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf6…5a54backed No57c30.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.441030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-46.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No58c30.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.751,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes45c30.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4420144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.224,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked Yes44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6921651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39be…aac9backed Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.580275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No55c28.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.772,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed No72c27.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6230332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No64c27.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.321,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No55c27.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.862,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No53c26.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.152,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No60c26.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.852,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No79c25.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes46c25.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.614353.5%23 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No66c24.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1990555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes49c24.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.291,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d8…a8cebacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.69361.3%57 W · 36 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb410…56b7backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134759.6%28 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed No56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No53c19.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.591,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb0…4346backed Yes60c18.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3715948.4%77 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39e…fa48backed No61c16.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.241266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d1…1baabacked No64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101020%2 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-68.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No77c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.517165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.