Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e5cbb377f7ef09344e3b1b26da015ae4ada12218bf8b4aa254a6182a71b116c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,893$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 58c | 1,378$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.58 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 1,354$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.05 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 1,335$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 1,117$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 1,058$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.06 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 855.88$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 732.85$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 56c | 599.99$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.99 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 497.03$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.06 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 473.16$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 434.17$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.59 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 401.6$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.99 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 399.14$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 395$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 28c | 332.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.79 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 249.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 246.31$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 54c | 238.48$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 65c | 222.03$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.32 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 217.03$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 198.89$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.53 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 57c | 185.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 176.13$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 170.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 50c | 170.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 165.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes | 54c | 145$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 136.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 128.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed Yes | 36c | 123.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 45c | 115.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 109.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 107.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 105$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 18c | 104.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 52c | 103.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 98.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 92.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…3736backed Yes | 37c | 91.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 52c | 89.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 85.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 85.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 84.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 34c | 80.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 56c | 73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 60c | 67.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 66.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed Yes | 24c | 59.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 30c | 54.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 50.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed Yes | 41c | 44.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 70c | 43.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 43.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 54c | 41.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 61c | 40.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 39.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…aa66backed Yes | 43c | 39.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 44c | 38.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 36.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 38c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed No | 71c | 33.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 63c | 32.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 32.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…5a54backed No | 57c | 30.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 30.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 45c | 30.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 28.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 72c | 27.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 64c | 27.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 27.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 26.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 26.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 46c | 25.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 24.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 49c | 24.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 60c | 18.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…fa48backed No | 61c | 16.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…1baabacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.