TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,958

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,550 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes59c1,358$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.841,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed No53c842.25$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.921,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes40c610.07$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.781,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes46c536.14$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.72,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes47c526.33$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.331,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes43c497.12$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.524,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No50c399.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.854,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No49c395$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.25,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes50c353.68$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.2610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No41c345.86$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.823,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes45c328.72$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.234,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8471…5566backed No52c285.45$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.083959%23 W · 16 L+7.3wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+38.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c273.14$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No44c261.76$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.094,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2856…c8f9backed Yes38c260.47$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.984753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes52c222.49$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.652,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes48c215.62$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.52,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No52c183.08$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.521,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No65c145.99$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No54c143.16$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.31,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No55c138.95$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0245162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d57…419cbacked Yes48c135$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.81442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes42c115.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.244839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No39c114.81$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.032,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes49c114.31$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.491,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No46c110.35$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.591,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No43c105.79$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.386,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No54c105.56$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.485,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes44c102.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.022,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes35c102.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.146,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No52c101.43$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5233746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5815529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfeab…aa66backed Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No53c98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.245,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes44c93.75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.139,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes51c90$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.981855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No52c87.15$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.832,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes51c85.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8234151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No41c84.63$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.778,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No65c84.16$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8442754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes37c82.42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8633232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c82$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.979,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No44c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.73,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No54c72$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.925954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c70.64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes49c70.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.555,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes52c69.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9218043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked Yes44c59.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1442762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No51c58.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4952758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes35c56.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7118945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes52c55.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.890555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05b9…0e6dbacked No66c55.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.044358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56d1…1baabacked Yes55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301020%2 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-68.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No44c51.72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.943,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes53c51.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.272,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes49c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.291,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.53,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf6…5a54backed No48c49.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.671030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-46.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No56c44.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8430849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x069b…3b3bbacked No50c42.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.42245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a34…51fabacked No53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes45c39.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6757948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes49c38.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.993,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes50c38.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1194552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b24…d8e3backed No53c37.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.71933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-46.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes51c37.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.24,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No46c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.824,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c34.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.998,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No58c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.861,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No47c31.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.94,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefe7…a709backed No49c30.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.482740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.22,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.13,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c29.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.283,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No51c29.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.441,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No60c28.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.452,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes38c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7393734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No49c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.281,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes48c27.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132015%3 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-58.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No51c26.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.151,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55bc…52d8backed Yes55c25.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.256839.7%27 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No40c25.31$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1966944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No49c23.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0777851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes46c23.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.844536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No50c23.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.672,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes44c23.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3146549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No60c23.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.391,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fad…9542backed Yes50c22.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.441233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No48c20.97$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.964,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.634853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.228649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.29361.3%57 W · 36 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb410…56b7backed Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44759.6%28 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1963…4a4cbacked No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9517165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0678…5e7abacked No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ba…1deabacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74450%22 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.