Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bc9ab3385e22f952072d32ab275f6a9dc12693e2a00a87b7921afb2daa68636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 59c | 1,358$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.84 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 53c | 842.25$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.92 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 40c | 610.07$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.78 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 46c | 536.14$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.7 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 47c | 526.33$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.33 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 497.12$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.52 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 399.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 395$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 50c | 353.68$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 41c | 345.86$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 328.72$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 52c | 285.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 273.14$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 261.76$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 38c | 260.47$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 52c | 222.49$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 215.62$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 183.08$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 65c | 145.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 143.16$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 55c | 138.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked Yes | 48c | 135$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 42c | 115.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 39c | 114.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 49c | 114.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 46c | 110.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 105.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 105.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 102.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 102.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 52c | 101.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…aa66backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 44c | 93.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 52c | 87.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 51c | 85.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 41c | 84.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 65c | 84.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 37c | 82.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 54c | 72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 70.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 70.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 52c | 69.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 44c | 59.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 58.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 35c | 56.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 52c | 55.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 66c | 55.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…1baabacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 44c | 51.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 51.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…5a54backed No | 48c | 49.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 56c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked No | 50c | 42.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…51fabacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 45c | 39.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 49c | 38.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 50c | 38.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…d8e3backed No | 53c | 37.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 51c | 37.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 34.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 31.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 49c | 30.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 29.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 51c | 29.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 28.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes | 48c | 27.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 51c | 26.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 55c | 25.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 40c | 25.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 49c | 23.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 46c | 23.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 50c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 44c | 23.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 60c | 23.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…9542backed Yes | 50c | 22.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 20.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…4a4cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…5e7abacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.