Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ea00d360808d637de8f1a81294a37dcb9fbe9f54bb7b41a7910f08613f705fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tsitsipasof Minaur, Tsitsipas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Minaur | 31c | 3,832$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.8 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Tsitsipas | 69c | 2,900$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.99 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b30dbacked Minaur | 32c | 1,551$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.32 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked Tsitsipas | 68c | 1,551$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Tsitsipas | 69c | 723.53$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.53 | 394 | 46.7%184 W · 210 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Minaur | 34c | 387.73$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Minaur | 33c | 340.49$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Tsitsipas | 67c | 290.5$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tsitsipas | 66c | 284.38$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Minaur | 32c | 274.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Minaur | 31c | 274.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tsitsipas | 67c | 261$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Tsitsipas | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -6.2wins | -0.33per pick | 54cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Minaur | 31c | 183.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…96a8backed Tsitsipas | 61c | 163.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Tsitsipas | 69c | 149.34$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Tsitsipas | 69c | 145.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Tsitsipas | 69c | 120.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 491 | 51.7%254 W · 237 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…ff0abacked Minaur | 35c | 118.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Tsitsipas | 69c | 111.59$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Tsitsipas | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Tsitsipas | 68c | 98.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Minaur | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Minaur | 40c | 77.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…094cbacked Minaur | 26c | 75.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…104cbacked Tsitsipas | 70c | 74.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 302 | 51.3%155 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Tsitsipas | 66c | 74.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Minaur | 39c | 73.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Minaur | 30c | 66.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Tsitsipas | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Tsitsipas | 67c | 62.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed Tsitsipas | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Tsitsipas | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Tsitsipas | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Tsitsipas | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Tsitsipas | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…421ebacked Tsitsipas | 69c | 18.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Tsitsipas | 59c | 17.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 586 | 65.5%384 W · 202 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)this page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Minaur vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Minaur vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos TsitsipasAlex de Minaur won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs TsitsipasMinaur won
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)Minaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.