F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Monaco GP pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ef7f840f0947ee7bf4424c8568b3b4d578e675a0a7d2c40a7f3676e24415e0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,326$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…114bbacked Yes | 26c | 3,596$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 74c | 3,302$2,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.41 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 70c | 1,559$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.41 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 75c | 1,346$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.64 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 26c | 1,253$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.68 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…3ccdbacked Yes | 32c | 1,076$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…6887backed Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…ae12backed Yes | 22c | 468.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 22c | 429.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 73c | 345.06$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 34c | 282.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 34c | 253.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 209.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 33c | 199.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 13c | 176$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 78c | 163.16$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 152.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa3…6449backed No | 66c | 150.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 66c | 140.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed No | 74c | 108.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…1349backed Yes | 33c | 107.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…4bcabacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…70eabacked Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 23cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…f03dbacked Yes | 33c | 82.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…a661backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 27c | 75.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825f…da87backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 25c | 64.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb854…d139backed Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…0eddbacked Yes | 36c | 55.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 25c | 51.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…1e72backed Yes | 26c | 41.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…1a85backed Yes | 35c | 37.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 72c | 37.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.