F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Monaco GP pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf44e0c69dd4f48f5f8f8d20fcad867e756a5c8f00772fdaf07bc42898c0d78f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 3,667$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 12c | 3,015$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,654 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 62c | 1,689$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.84 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,066$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.07 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…0a10backed No | 2c | 1,062$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 17c | 999.96$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.96 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…5781backed No | 15c | 904.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…6887backed Yes | 17c | 800$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 16c | 716.03$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.76 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb995…5f38backed Yes | 18c | 511.34$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 19c | 499.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.88 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 17c | 411.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.76 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d0…ca0bbacked No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 75c | 333.57$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.77 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 208.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.74 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec01…6592backed Yes | 38c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe282…a305backed No | 7c | 175.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…6012backed Yes | 21c | 146.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.04 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b94…3239backed Yes | 69c | 145.45$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 38c | 133.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 16c | 124.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.47 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…ff74backed Yes | 25c | 109.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…0eddbacked Yes | 22c | 91.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 12c | 88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 38c | 85.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed No | 60c | 76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…6621backed Yes | 16c | 64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 71c | 51.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2369…dc3cbacked Yes | 59c | 45.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3845…4c75backed Yes | 39c | 43.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…f03dbacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb287…c1c0backed Yes | 49c | 40.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.