Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana Grizzlies vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f3d90b3c9bb11bf9aff63a13376abb5364849b1f57e41007973b6633acdbdc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana Grizzliesof Montana Grizzlies, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Montana Grizzlies | 67c | 3,500$2,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.68 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 34c | 1,393$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.56 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 24c | 1,076$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Montana Grizzlies | 63c | 953.29$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 39c | 776.83$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.47 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 33c | 700$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 2c | 664.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Montana Grizzlies | 69c | 611.5$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.65 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 36c | 538.62$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 38c | 526.54$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.51 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 34c | 470.26$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.31 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Montana Grizzlies | 74c | 424.79$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 33c | 360$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 36c | 283.29$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Montana Grizzlies | 61c | 270.64$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Montana Grizzlies | 65c | 269.95$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.95 | 195 | 54.9%107 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 39c | 266$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Montana Grizzlies | 65c | 242.85$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Montana Grizzlies | 61c | 208$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Montana Grizzlies | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 202 | 54.5%110 W · 92 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x545e…0185backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Montana Grizzlies | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 9c | 142.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Montana Grizzlies | 73c | 100.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Montana Grizzlies | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 40c | 88.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Montana Grizzlies | 60c | 84.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 40c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Montana Grizzlies | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 225 | 52.9%119 W · 106 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 46.1%100 W · 117 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Montana Grizzlies | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 31c | 48.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 37c | 47.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…d9d6backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Montana Grizzlies | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Montana Grizzlies | 66c | 23.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93b…08bebacked Montana Grizzlies | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…ffb1backed Montana Grizzlies | 61c | 18.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Montana Grizzlies | 66c | 16.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.