La Liga · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f50be43618b9bc4bef48adad64087a7d1baf1fdc0f17d0c8ab778ab327b5b48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 26c | 4,951$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.64 | 988 | 33.4%330 W · 658 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 74c | 4,000$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 241 | 47.7%115 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 8c | 2,536$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.84 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 75c | 1,615$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.85 | 502 | 49.6%249 W · 253 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 1,164$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.75 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51af…8720backed Over | 8c | 840$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 25c | 721.32$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.02 | 476 | 53.8%256 W · 220 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f4adbacked Under | 78c | 632.56$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 14c | 564.49$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 6c | 487.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 73c | 451.43$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 26c | 367.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 171 | 28.1%48 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 5c | 262.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 74c | 180$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…a654backed Under | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 129.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 1,559 | 51.6%804 W · 755 L | -9.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Under | 78c | 125.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 40 | 85%34 W · 6 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Under | 76c | 108.42$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 27c | 105.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 693 | 50.9%353 W · 340 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 26c | 101.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 452 | 50.2%227 W · 225 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…ba56backed Under | 73c | 94.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8006…94dcbacked Under | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 29c | 59.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Over | 28c | 53.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Under | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Under | 74c | 33.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1538…0954backed Under | 78c | 29.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…9b64backed Under | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 77c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -9.0wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Under | 79c | 16.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 72c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)RCD Espanyol de Barcelona won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.