Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f510d323fd9f4b9b2a1e7c6bab52aba7fb64f3a7e0a510c64baa00c91d82b75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 21c | 997.07$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.09 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 39c | 778.64$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.22 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 637.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 78c | 340.51$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 305.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 71c | 280.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 22c | 279.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 74c | 268.29$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 13c | 238$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 199.95$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 196.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 61c | 193.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 67c | 188.17$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 179.94$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked No | 79c | 170.34$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 169.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 162.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 74c | 145.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 80c | 144.79$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…0f87backed Yes | 18c | 140.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 140.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 33c | 139.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 139.19$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118a…457ebacked Yes | 49c | 126.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 108.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 106.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 79c | 97.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 21c | 93.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 25c | 90.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 89.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 88.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4902…eeb1backed Yes | 18c | 88.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 15c | 80.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 61c | 79.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…076ebacked Yes | 19c | 77.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 75.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 68c | 69.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 35c | 66.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 75c | 59.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 22c | 55.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 39c | 55.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 21c | 52.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 78c | 45.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 34c | 43.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 43c | 43.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 76c | 35.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 79c | 31.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 77c | 30.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…9156backed No | 73c | 27.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51b0…cc9cbacked No | 72c | 25.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 80c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 75c | 25.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 75c | 23.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 43c | 23.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 61c | 22.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 75c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 74c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 80c | 12.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 12.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.