Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70d4c4f740bb935f0b5374281f7bdf6e1db5a00b90c7166ec03885e5b446b845
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 13c | 1,052$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 2c | 705.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 527.18$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.38 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 446.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 307.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 27c | 295.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 281.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 72c | 263.59$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 239.28$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 223.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 18c | 221.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 70c | 202.62$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 201.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 75c | 199.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…b50ebacked Yes | 32c | 198.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 32c | 182.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 177.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 164.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 164.23$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 145.71$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 31c | 132.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 131.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 27c | 130.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…6bfabacked No | 80c | 125.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 123$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 118.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 15c | 116.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1f…d278backed Yes | 32c | 114.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 70c | 107.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 19c | 106.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 13c | 105.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 35c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 28c | 103.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 100.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3b…1de5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked Yes | 20c | 98.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 32c | 93.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 87.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 86.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 86.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 31c | 84.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 16c | 76.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 33c | 75.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 70.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 32c | 67.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 16c | 66.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 64.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 62.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 75c | 61.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 25c | 59.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 18c | 55.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed No | 73c | 50.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 27c | 49.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 31c | 49.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 47.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 32c | 47.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 31c | 46.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 29c | 42.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 40.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 28c | 36.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 30c | 35.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 34.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd736…ba5dbacked No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 70c | 31.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 40c | 31.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 30.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 75c | 26.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 23.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 23.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 78c | 22.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 74c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 75c | 22.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 70c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 65c | 20.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 71c | 19.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8343…ba81backed No | 74c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…de56backed No | 68c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.