Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7912918d6cf407ff095aff2f25de3b032c1af9484c6d21a3eb7df28f779c67e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 4c | 1,225$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 495.36$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 5c | 420.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 381.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 281.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 270.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 247.19$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 24c | 218.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 71c | 213.83$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.16 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 33c | 213.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.05 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 19c | 204.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 167.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 29c | 161.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 17c | 138.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 134.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 133$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 126.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 62c | 125.36$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 119.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 66c | 112.07$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 38c | 110.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 106.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 73c | 102$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 100.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 93.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 86.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 85.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 83.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 79.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 27c | 74.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 23c | 67.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 46c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1f…d278backed Yes | 27c | 58.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 25c | 57.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 72c | 55.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bf…04aabacked No | 68c | 51.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 64c | 48.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…d1f8backed No | 35c | 47.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 37c | 47.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 49c | 46.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 46.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 43c | 43.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 70c | 43.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 42.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 24c | 41.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 27c | 38.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 28c | 37.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 36.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 70c | 35.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 35.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 71c | 28.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 45c | 26.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 49c | 26.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 71c | 24.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 48c | 23.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed No | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…69e6backed Yes | 77c | 20.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…bce9backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 72c | 19.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 17.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.