WNBA · resolved market
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 183.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f8051cb48c0c0d28df6f46f21564e14788ccd5da61ca6e9bfa9f3eeebefe536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6cb6…d647backed Over | 64c | 786.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.45 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Under | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Over | 61c | 354.27$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.93 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 36c | 287.28$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 42c | 211.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 38c | 198$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 39c | 171$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 37c | 156.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Over | 73c | 124.96$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 11c | 106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…38c8backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 54c | 84.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Under | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 36c | 35.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 38c | 28.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…d432backed Over | 62c | 28.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +38%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…6be7backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 183.5this page
- Caitlin Clark: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFireIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 180.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 184.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 185.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 186.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 187.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 188.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 189.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.