WNBA · resolved market
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 188.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa95493c379d30bd763f66e2fbcac988908ea0689d44a6920bd3d7d9ecde575
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 5,144$2,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,562.02 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe156…134bbacked Over | 49c | 3,073$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.56 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…6789backed Under | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 1,787$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.9 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 1,440$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.43 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab1…1975backed Under | 51c | 1,412$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e51…42cebacked Over | 47c | 1,328$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.04 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Over | 49c | 776.92$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 49c | 598.98$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.75 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1101…dfd5backed Under | 52c | 590$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 50c | 506$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ef…b630backed Over | 73c | 418.98$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.12 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ba…3ca5backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Over | 49c | 400.37$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b17…d36dbacked Over | 49c | 367.35$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 79c | 312.86$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 48c | 310$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…cca3backed Over | 49c | 223.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Over | 49c | 206.18$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.15 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc806…57c6backed Over | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b39…1f68backed Over | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7049…85a5backed Over | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2114…84c5backed Under | 52c | 192.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 52c | 159.48$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 141.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…474ebacked Over | 78c | 128.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 52c | 119$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…6408backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Over | 52c | 95.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 25c | 84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…9626backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 47c | 73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 53.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…4ac7backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 42c | 38.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba4…f918backed Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…90b2backed Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…d432backed Over | 47c | 37.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 53c | 37.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 48c | 34.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 53c | 24.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 53c | 24.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Under | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 188.5this page
- Caitlin Clark: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFireIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 180.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 183.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 184.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 185.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 186.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 187.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 189.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.