WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09b347de140313e80888c30cd8c9b4ccf1b5aa638cf66fc81bb08a8a561a706e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x379a…5122backed PortlandFire | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…5032backed PortlandFire | 39c | 1,828$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.58 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 54c | 1,434$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.85 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 1,375$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 62c | 1,027$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.24 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e51…42cebacked PortlandFire | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever | 61c | 995.05$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.61 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 970.71$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.6 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 850.63$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.69 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae3f…defebacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 825$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked PortlandFire | 52c | 800$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Indiana Fever | 46c | 535.34$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.52 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 492.06$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.87 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed PortlandFire | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed PortlandFire | 48c | 370$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 318.18$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 300.36$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.19 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed PortlandFire | 38c | 290.27$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Indiana Fever | 46c | 272.5$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.91 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed PortlandFire | 53c | 261$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.33 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…4b0dbacked PortlandFire | 54c | 256$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Indiana Fever | 62c | 238.67$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 218.51$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked PortlandFire | 40c | 171.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked PortlandFire | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed PortlandFire | 55c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…d430backed PortlandFire | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…4d43backed PortlandFire | 54c | 92.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed PortlandFire | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 90.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 86.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed PortlandFire | 68c | 66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked PortlandFire | 54c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 51.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fe…aac5backed PortlandFire | 55c | 51.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Indiana Fever | 62c | 49.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Indiana Fever | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Indiana Fever | 69c | 40.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Indiana Fever | 70c | 40.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Indiana Fever | 64c | 38.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Indiana Fever | 65c | 30.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed PortlandFire | 54c | 28.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Indiana Fever | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea6…9223backed PortlandFire | 53c | 21.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)this page
- Caitlin Clark: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFireIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 180.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 183.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 184.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 185.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 186.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 187.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 188.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 189.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.