WNBA · resolved market
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 184.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96d0abc828b9248db5acb6c3563ab94c3ac146776449568a8fc4f6fa7678a425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Over | 60c | 4,578$2,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.5 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Under | 40c | 1,690$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 41c | 1,672$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Under | 2c | 1,152$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 37c | 575$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 71c | 353.25$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 38c | 293.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.04 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 13c | 276.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc108…8fcfbacked Under | 55c | 179.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Over | 61c | 164.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Over | 45c | 145.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 39c | 125.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 113.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…38c8backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 34c | 61.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ef…b630backed Under | 28c | 58.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 44.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Under | 47c | 41.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Under | 42c | 39.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 214 | 46.3%99 W · 115 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 41c | 24.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 58c | 22.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 72c | 20.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 72c | 18.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 73c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 70c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 184.5this page
- Caitlin Clark: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFireIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 180.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 183.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 185.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 186.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 187.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 188.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 189.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.