Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fa38fe3cd1af3ca54eaacff36167ded66cba98b33f9202086d28853c846191c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 5,028$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 918.71$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.99 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 11c | 699.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 53c | 601.31$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.03 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…cd73backed Yes | 49c | 511.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 34c | 412.64$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 51c | 326.64$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.51 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 308$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 284.76$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 78c | 272.15$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 228.4$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 17c | 227.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 35c | 224.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 52c | 191.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…cc08backed Yes | 46c | 183.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 170.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 50c | 168.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7359…ee92backed Yes | 55c | 163.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 21c | 153.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 44c | 145.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 48c | 144$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 35c | 137.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 135$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 37c | 133.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 128.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 117.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 106$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 105$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 105$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 103.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 102.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 99.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9316…dc6bbacked Yes | 51c | 98.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 54c | 91.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 45c | 87.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 32c | 84.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 61c | 83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 45c | 82.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 27c | 74.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 24c | 72.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 39c | 71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 68.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed Yes | 41c | 64.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf2…6599backed Yes | 48c | 62.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 29c | 62.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 33c | 60.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 40c | 58.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 55.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed No | 44c | 54.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 54.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 61c | 51.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf76a…b506backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…11f8backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c9…f635backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…7870backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 49.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 47.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 46.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 32c | 46.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 45c | 43.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 66c | 42.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 73c | 40.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 40.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 51c | 39.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 55c | 36.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 60c | 35.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 31c | 33.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 38c | 32.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 54c | 32.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…52adbacked Yes | 44c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 52c | 29.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 45c | 27.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 25.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 25.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 52c | 25.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed Yes | 55c | 24.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 69c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.