TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,454
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,027

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,454 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c5,028$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.043,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes42c918.71$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.9965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes11c699.98$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781450%7 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+105.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x24ed…8a18backed Yes53c601.31$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.0318732.1%60 W · 127 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x767c…cd73backed Yes49c511.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x437f…5b95backed Yes34c412.64$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.412536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e1…eb43backed No51c326.64$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.5116552.1%86 W · 79 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes19c308$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.193,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes8c299.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No57c284.76$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.27,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8839…ddb5backed No78c272.15$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1621865.6%143 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c228.4$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.785,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes17c227.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6220445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes35c224.19$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.421,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes52c191.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10049941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7f…cc08backed Yes46c183.54$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.261127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No56c170.74$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.328,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f25…bee4backed Yes50c168.38$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.779341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7359…ee92backed Yes55c163.23$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d09…143fbacked Yes21c153.45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1428829.5%85 W · 203 L+32.9wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+101.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No48c150$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7835344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes44c145.43$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9456543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No48c144$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8863757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes35c137.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2131219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c135$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.745,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes37c133.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9623436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No50c128.58$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.172,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No63c117.56$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.731,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c106$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.413,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c105$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.953,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No49c105$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.74,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c103.34$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.733,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c102.85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.44,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5519071.6%136 W · 54 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No51c99.48$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.386,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9316…dc6bbacked Yes51c98.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No54c91.2$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0489661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No45c87.11$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9116847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes32c84.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1545540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No61c83$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3763143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes45c82.93$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.199147.3%43 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes27c74.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.962,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes24c72.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0648919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes39c71$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8823540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c68.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.513,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed No60c66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2447738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No57c65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.842,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2751…d0b1backed Yes41c64.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.854346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadf2…6599backed Yes48c62.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc8d…0939backed Yes29c62.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.935226.9%14 W · 38 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Yes33c60.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015128.5%43 W · 108 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes40c58.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.253743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes33c55.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x50d3…bad4backed No44c54.19$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.351741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes29c54.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.722,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes23c52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9694919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No61c51.37$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7841760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.534853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf76a…b506backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.744646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d57…11f8backed Yes56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084c…589ebacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22c9…f635backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.530442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98df…7870backed No46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No62c49.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.921,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes36c47.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No57c46.79$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.913,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes32c46.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.652446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No45c43.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9617947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No66c42.32$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2355855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No73c40.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8782268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes37c40.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.041,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1264960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd12…7f29backed Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.415437.7%58 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No51c39.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.272,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No55c36.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.381,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No60c35.62$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3988650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes31c33.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5441051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab38…acf6backed Yes38c32.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.675040%20 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes54c32.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3116045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No63c31.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.472,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ead…52adbacked Yes44c29.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.191546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No52c29.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.367336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes39c28.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1139346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No45c27.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9525258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No68c25.82$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.322,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No64c25.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2657264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No52c25.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.335,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No58c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.451,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.751,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No64c24.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0679255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ea…3ce8backed Yes55c24.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.623655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No51c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8280050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No69c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.841,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No69c21.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7948149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.