TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,420

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,582 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x437f…5b95backed Yes35c656.11$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.4612536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ed…8a18backed Yes31c600.77$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.8218732.1%60 W · 127 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes32c599.98$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.651733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No47c571.36$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.997,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed No58c545.66$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.524139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x182a…f847backed No11c386.77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3718762.6%117 W · 70 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes12c361.95$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.518,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No46c337.77$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.713,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c326.73$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.265,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…0020backed No65c321.4$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.1438930.3%118 W · 271 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0020…16b9backed No71c320.75$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.9218333.3%61 W · 122 L-17.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-33.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c228.4$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.885,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes13c222.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.1810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No34c208.86$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8531219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x726e…aafbbacked Yes77c200$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1923269%160 W · 72 L+23.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed Yes79c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5619552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1124067.5%27 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes51c199.89$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2645540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No65c197.65$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.752,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No70c188.76$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1328441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes25c175.11$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.025,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes30c165.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.471936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes31c161.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.341861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+39.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes60c152.83$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4437942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No11c150.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.771,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c139.35$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes17c138.04$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.572,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes45c133.1$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7423436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No29c132.31$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7448919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes57c130.16$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No63c123.27$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.664,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Yes43c122.24$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0411935.3%42 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c122$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.669,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes26c121.65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4519217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No42c120$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.73,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed No42c118.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No18c116.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.318441.3%76 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de1…18a2backed Yes46c109.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3643515.2%66 W · 369 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x767c…cd73backed Yes65c106.95$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.95955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes77c101.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f25…bee4backed Yes55c101.15$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.149341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83cd…e218backed Yes54c100.89$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.899448.9%46 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x818b…1646backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4510850.9%55 W · 53 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed Yes24c97.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0144058.2%256 W · 184 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No36c90.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.936,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No20c89.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.442,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7272…5d6dbacked Yes12c87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.56520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes20c84.47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2817231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes60c83.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5852935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No41c83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6289661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes61c82.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2434853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c79.95$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.724,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ead…52adbacked Yes33c79$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.931546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0e1…4995backed Yes47c78.96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.076346%29 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes24c78.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.373,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c75$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.273,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No41c71.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.418046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b3…c90bbacked No71c70$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-53.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No59c65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.142,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes24c65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.41,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3cca…17e5backed No69c64.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.463461.8%21 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No49c60.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8641760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4885…2236backed Yes57c59.42$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.737047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes50c57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.516432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No70c57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.991444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes62c56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4627129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes22c54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1294919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No39c53.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7482268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x9316…dc6bbacked Yes58c52.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4101…d968backed No69c52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.882540%10 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5239…4134backed Yes77c50.15$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.68466.7%56 W · 28 L+9.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+36%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.548149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.519071.6%136 W · 54 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.571031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7510…6cb0backed Yes66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No71c49.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.721,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No46c48.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.171649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes25c47.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7837355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15b7…4cdebacked No41c47.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.28661.6%53 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes48c46.32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.921,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2751…d0b1backed Yes28c46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.124346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No45c44.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No47c43.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5818142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No45c40.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No47c39.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4455855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c7d…63debacked No51c35.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.94860.4%29 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e7…04a6backed Yes31c33.54$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.264738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.764,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No39c30.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8625258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.34,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No71c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.367336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcbe6…036dbacked Yes34c29.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.74520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No35c29.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.232,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4bf…ef7cbacked Yes59c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.381827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed No43c27.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.654656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6719…a34dbacked Yes50c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.59129.7%27 W · 64 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab38…acf6backed Yes55c23.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.675040%20 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1464960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.