Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb59cbc193a9d07f907ee615e74729947d18d2687909f564adf7defb516cb9755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 35c | 656.11$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.46 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 31c | 600.77$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.82 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 32c | 599.98$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.6 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 571.36$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 58c | 545.66$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.5 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 11c | 386.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 361.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 337.77$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 326.73$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 65c | 321.4$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.14 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 71c | 320.75$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.92 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 228.4$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 222.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 34c | 208.86$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 77c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 51c | 199.89$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 197.65$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 70c | 188.76$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.13 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 175.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 30c | 165.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.47 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes | 31c | 161.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 60c | 152.83$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 11c | 150.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 139.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 17c | 138.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 45c | 133.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 29c | 132.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 57c | 130.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 123.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 43c | 122.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 122$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 26c | 121.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 42c | 118.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 18c | 116.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 46c | 109.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…cd73backed Yes | 65c | 106.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 77c | 101.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 55c | 101.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 54c | 100.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 24c | 97.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 90.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 20c | 89.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…5d6dbacked Yes | 12c | 87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 20c | 84.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 60c | 83.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 41c | 83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 61c | 82.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 79.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…52adbacked Yes | 33c | 79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 47c | 78.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 78.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 41c | 71.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…c90bbacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed No | 69c | 64.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 49c | 60.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 57c | 59.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 70c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 62c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 39c | 53.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9316…dc6bbacked Yes | 58c | 52.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 77c | 50.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 49.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 46c | 48.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 25c | 47.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 41c | 47.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 48c | 46.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 44.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 43.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 45c | 40.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 47c | 39.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 51c | 35.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 31c | 33.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 39c | 30.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe6…036dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 35c | 29.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…ef7cbacked Yes | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 43c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 55c | 23.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.