Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fb3661b3996bccdc62f0c5d19e910dcc59a6a53d135c4cd39a5d0e15f5cef3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 49c | 499.79$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.04 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 36c | 471.12$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.47 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 52c | 300.81$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 39c | 283.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.43 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 44c | 256.73$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.76 | 260 | 61.5%160 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 57c | 249.48$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed No | 10c | 230$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 205.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 50c | 199.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 186.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 177.56$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0208…9484backed Yes | 66c | 149.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 35c | 142.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 26c | 123.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 67c | 121.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…030dbacked No | 39c | 119.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 116.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…c072backed No | 54c | 113.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 69c | 101.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 44c | 89.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 79.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 55c | 79.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 57c | 69.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 46c | 67.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a6…66f9backed Yes | 79c | 67.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 60c | 64.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 30c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 57.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 35c | 54.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 78c | 54.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 51c | 48.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 39c | 47.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 43c | 46.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 42c | 46.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 63c | 45.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 67c | 45.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 40c | 41.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 27c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 49c | 40.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 35.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked No | 43c | 34.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 52c | 30.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 46c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 29.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 62c | 26.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 58c | 25.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 59c | 25.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed No | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 68c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…81babacked Yes | 76c | 21.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 144 | 32.6%47 W · 97 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd358…cfbdbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 60c | 19.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 57c | 17.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.