Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3f6bb93c7222d937f06b601f2df9fcde53129c9d81228606081263a83ed7650
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 64c | 2,829$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.39 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 529.23$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.89 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 426.75$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.63 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 31c | 216.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 32c | 207.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 205.83$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 25c | 202.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 411 | 37.7%155 W · 256 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 31c | 199.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 221 | 60.6%134 W · 87 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 70c | 195.79$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 38c | 184$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 32c | 177.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…031abacked Yes | 29c | 167.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 164.64$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 150.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 135.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 36c | 134.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 416 | 51.9%216 W · 200 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 27c | 133$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ed…0ca6backed Yes | 28c | 132.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 26c | 132.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…140fbacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 29c | 125.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 70c | 106.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 25c | 103.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 29c | 93.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1,065 | 35.1%374 W · 691 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 30c | 80.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 75.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 28c | 72.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 288 | 45.1%130 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 39c | 68.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 66.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a6…66f9backed Yes | 30c | 62.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 32c | 61.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 32.2%55 W · 116 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…030dbacked Yes | 30c | 61.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 77c | 55.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 37c | 53.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +12.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 27c | 43.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 70c | 41.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | +14.2wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 69c | 39.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…3aebbacked No | 72c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 32c | 34.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 30.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 33c | 30.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 30.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 76c | 29.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 112 | 72.3%81 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 22.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd5…62f3backed No | 79c | 20.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 515 | 52%268 W · 247 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…6c65backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked No | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 67c | 17.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 15.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 76c | 13.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 128 | 75.8%97 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 13.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.