Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8006c41b15fb5c2b08eb5851462f636d697fb0be91fbf7746117024dacd99b87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 16c | 1,083$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.44 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 67c | 933.3$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.82 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 12c | 603.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.36 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 18c | 564.77$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.88 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 20c | 516.03$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.24 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 410.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 67c | 408.82$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.38 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 374.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.48 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 22c | 371.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.76 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 64c | 296.56$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.56 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 287.71$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 276.24$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 254.16$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.65 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 230$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 206$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 38c | 205.6$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.35 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed Yes | 13c | 177.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.96 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 21c | 154.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.48 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 11c | 148.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.08 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 12c | 137.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.57 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 11c | 136.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 45c | 126.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 126.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 21c | 119.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.95 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 10c | 115.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 63c | 112.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 28c | 85.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 14c | 82.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 34c | 78.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 72.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 76c | 69.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 23c | 66.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked No | 77c | 65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 38c | 64.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 33c | 57.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 23c | 51.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3a…258ebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 74c | 46.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 46.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 26c | 41.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 41.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…ef6bbacked No | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…f575backed No | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 31c | 37.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 35.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 31c | 35.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 49c | 31.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 31.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 28.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 64c | 28.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 25.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 70c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 69c | 18.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 17.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 77c | 14.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 40°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.