Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4454fbd4a82704cc8a038fadf538d280b8c7af4e81377aaeab970c3e09217b7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 43c | 755.47$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.27 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 58c | 434.79$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.14 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 355.88$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 290.19$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 37c | 286.25$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 67c | 274.12$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.77 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 37c | 254.16$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 252.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 43c | 213.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 72c | 212$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.2 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 75c | 208.18$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.33 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 46c | 199.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 191.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…2830backed Yes | 53c | 188.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 34c | 183.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa753…2861backed Yes | 52c | 177.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 177$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 173$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 160.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 37c | 160$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 33c | 155.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 38c | 149.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 148$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 30c | 137.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab3…c4a1backed Yes | 72c | 136.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 133.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed6…2322backed No | 69c | 132.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 131.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes | 77c | 130.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 28c | 122$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 118.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 115.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 32c | 110.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 110.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 60c | 109.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 39c | 108$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 66c | 107.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 69c | 103.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 36c | 100.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 65c | 89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 87.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 85.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 81.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 21c | 80.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 60c | 80.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 31c | 79.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 75.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 62c | 71.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 71.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 24c | 65.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ff…6494backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 57.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 74c | 57.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 56.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 32c | 55.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 73c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 41c | 53.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 28c | 52.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 51.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 58c | 51.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 50.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 38c | 49.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 51c | 49.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7c…2b60backed Yes | 39c | 47.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +93%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 43c | 46.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 46c | 44.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 44.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 44.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…afe1backed Yes | 57c | 43.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 58c | 43.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 62c | 43.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 42.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 40.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 28c | 39.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 39.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 67c | 38.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 52c | 34.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 40°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.