Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f107bbc34eff48e694b71cd3dc2c389d1f7bb9d71af8c5b47c75b71b97e110d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 35c | 2,179$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.67 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,516$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 17c | 1,164$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 1,011$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 572.78$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 25c | 486.8$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 39c | 323.54$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 287.55$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 271.91$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 65c | 247.63$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 20c | 232.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 220.73$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 39c | 215.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 214$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 55c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 80c | 174.53$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 39c | 167.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 163.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 153.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…21fdbacked No | 77c | 124.07$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 21c | 119.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 107.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…e628backed Yes | 19c | 104.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…ed54backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 94.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 45c | 92.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 90.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 36c | 90.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 40c | 89.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 87.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 87.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 18c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 63c | 82.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 35c | 79.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 78.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 78.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 77.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 20c | 76.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 75.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 69c | 72.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 51c | 71.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 71.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 18c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 26c | 58.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa753…2861backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 34c | 56.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 56.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 71c | 52.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ff…6494backed Yes | 38c | 52.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 48.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 47.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 40.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 37.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 40c | 37.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 33.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 33.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 32.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Yes | 40c | 30.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 62c | 26.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 24.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 23.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 57c | 21.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 20.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…c3a6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 19.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 19.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…8a5cbacked No | 73c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 40°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.