TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,301

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes31c1,465$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.2142036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff52…688ebacked Yes38c1,159$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.31944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes29c700$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c675$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.758,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0050…cad1backed No58c296$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.525350.9%27 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes11c264.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.242,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No67c255$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.92,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes29c254.47$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.528,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No66c211.55$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.612,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No67c185$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.215,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes36c184.53$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9844536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes28c175.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.811,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes36c160.7$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.522,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa286…b3babacked Yes35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c140.45$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.529,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes38c136.44$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.852,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No69c135$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.851,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No62c127.19$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.754,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd93d…72d2backed Yes40c126.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c120$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.45,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c118.68$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3042253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No58c99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1764167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes38c90.6$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.011,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes22c84.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.85,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No61c83.84$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.579,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No70c82.85$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.861,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes33c73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.092,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d30…91d6backed Yes31c68.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3917231.4%54 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes38c65.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.572,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe37a…844dbacked No73c63.6$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1712876.6%98 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No64c62.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2117858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed No56c56.43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8813959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes46c56.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.851,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes37c55.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4949551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0037…8d61backed Yes47c53.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes38c53.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2618033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No62c53$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.214,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes21c51.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9196015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No69c50.65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.716272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1846457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1918131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2244646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe67c…3de5backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes31c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.510121.8%22 W · 79 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes33c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4730136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c9b…8e49backed No67c45.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.89475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61ef…131ebacked No67c44.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.77771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2613…08e3backed Yes38c42.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-62.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No62c42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No61c41.9$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3489557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes34c41.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No61c40.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9983360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b96…4268backed No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.82941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c36.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.637,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a5…c6fdbacked No70c35.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No54c34.07$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.544,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80da…9bc6backed Yes34c33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3530…d99abacked No61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.791090%9 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick66cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No64c32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4425868.2%176 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No66c29.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.24,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6bf…3387backed No69c28.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Yes47c27.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.929541.1%39 W · 56 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa087…91f7backed Yes46c27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4217635.2%62 W · 114 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e5…bf21backed No62c26.32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No54c25.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.793,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.754,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9907…8a50backed Yes42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58046.3%37 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x558b…f41bbacked No63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2728660.8%174 W · 112 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0626958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.771,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…cd3cbacked No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812851.6%66 W · 62 L-13.1wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-25.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.464859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed70…04cebacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35b6…caadbacked No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.054369.8%30 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No67c19.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.567252.8%38 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No60c17.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e8…2e62backed No60c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.744971.4%35 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No66c15.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.291,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.