Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80354f0078c7945747967e3d272e2b2f3644dee8a3eb0bdd80b49fe4c1a6d3f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 31c | 1,465$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.21 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…688ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,159$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 700$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 675$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 58c | 296$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.52 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 264.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 255$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 254.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 211.55$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 185$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 36c | 184.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 175.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 160.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa286…b3babacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 140.45$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 38c | 136.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 135$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 127.19$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 40c | 126.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 118.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 58c | 99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 90.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 84.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 83.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 82.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 31c | 68.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 65.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 73c | 63.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 64c | 62.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 56c | 56.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 46c | 56.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 37c | 55.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0037…8d61backed Yes | 47c | 53.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 38c | 53.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 21c | 51.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 69c | 50.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 33c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…8e49backed No | 67c | 45.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…131ebacked No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…08e3backed Yes | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 41.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 41.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 40.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 36.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…c6fdbacked No | 70c | 35.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 34.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…9bc6backed Yes | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3530…d99abacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 64c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…3387backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 47c | 27.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…bf21backed No | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 25.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…04cebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 67c | 19.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.