Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8054e1d8c2faf57412ea324d6eedb3d60d93ab1311cb501312757b7df3c2d518
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 389.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.24 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 59c | 356.4$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.52 | 341 | 61.6%210 W · 131 L | -22.0wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 343.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 43c | 322.05$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.08 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 43c | 277.06$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.44 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 51c | 206.15$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 342 | 22.2%76 W · 266 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 52c | 180.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 23c | 170.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 156.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 30c | 155.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 76c | 131.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 58c | 95.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed No | 52c | 94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 90.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 87.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 85.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 50c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 53c | 77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 65c | 72.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 63c | 69.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 26c | 69.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 61c | 62.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 44c | 60.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 58.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 31c | 55.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 44c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 69c | 48.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 65c | 46.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 45.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 45.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed No | 54c | 39.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 47c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 455 | 66.2%301 W · 154 L | +20.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fc…9df5backed No | 78c | 34.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb278…0f72backed No | 78c | 32.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 33c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 28.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 47c | 28.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 27.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 51c | 26.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 41c | 25.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 25.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -39.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 390 | 70.5%275 W · 115 L | +65.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe675…e1ebbacked No | 78c | 21.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 79c | 19.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c19…dc54backed No | 70c | 16.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed No | 75c | 15.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 15.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ab…d374backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.