MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80648b3f1a71f7ecc7a8f2ff22d9e4b7d84ba3c859341d075da328d308cb9b9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 48c | 3,370$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.23 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…f1bfbacked Over | 48c | 2,838$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.36 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 2,811$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.31 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 48c | 2,493$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 2,430$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.57 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 52c | 1,041$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.68 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 51c | 980$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.2 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 800$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 52c | 773$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.04 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 528.85$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.11 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 52c | 518.49$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.75 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 16c | 491$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…e1a1backed Over | 61c | 462.45$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 47c | 460$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.1 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 47c | 426.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.68 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 386.39$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Under | 53c | 339.62$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.62 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 301.34$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.08 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 55c | 301$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 27c | 282$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.22 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 270.96$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 66c | 261.81$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.39 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 52c | 231.17$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 54c | 222.42$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 51c | 211.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 60c | 197$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 49c | 155.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 49c | 143$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…43fdbacked Under | 44c | 135.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 53c | 122.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 55c | 122.95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Over | 49c | 120.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…c8e7backed Under | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 78c | 91.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 47c | 90.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 58c | 86.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 46c | 80.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 78.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 24c | 77.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 41c | 63.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 44c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 65c | 62.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 56c | 62.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Over | 48c | 62.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 47c | 61.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 47c | 47.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…0003backed Over | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 41c | 39.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 53c | 38.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 47c | 35.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Over | 48c | 35.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -15.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 56c | 31.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 49c | 27.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 70c | 21.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Over | 49c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee BrewersArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.