Tennis · resolved market
HSBC Championships: Alcaraz vs. Lehecka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x806a38e6827a3c7f5ac2637b74fc07166c84d0f12d643462a8060ed3c21beeac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcaraz of Alcaraz , Lehecka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Alcaraz | 80c | 6,412$5,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.36 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Lehecka | 22c | 5,956$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.88 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Lehecka | 22c | 2,780$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.1 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Alcaraz | 80c | 2,506$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lehecka | 18c | 2,117$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.65 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Alcaraz | 78c | 2,100$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lehecka | 19c | 2,047$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.93 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Lehecka | 20c | 2,026$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.2 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Lehecka | 16c | 1,916$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.52 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Lehecka | 19c | 1,097$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.55 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6d…c715backed Lehecka | 13c | 1,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Lehecka | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Lehecka | 21c | 999.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Lehecka | 21c | 943.09$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.05 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…d4d8backed Alcaraz | 79c | 912.5$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Alcaraz | 79c | 850$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Lehecka | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Lehecka | 21c | 707.19$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 290 | 28.3%82 W · 208 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…2b83backed Alcaraz | 77c | 694.78$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…b0f5backed Lehecka | 11c | 664.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…d80ebacked Lehecka | 21c | 660.6$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…471ebacked Alcaraz | 77c | 650.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Lehecka | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Lehecka | 18c | 611.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Lehecka | 20c | 599.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a6…1198backed Lehecka | 21c | 550$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabca…cfd1backed Lehecka | 10c | 510.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Lehecka | 21c | 480$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Alcaraz | 78c | 468$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lehecka | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa239…89d6backed Lehecka | 22c | 426.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Lehecka | 16c | 425.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Alcaraz | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed Alcaraz | 74c | 385$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Alcaraz | 78c | 347.5$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Lehecka | 19c | 299.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Alcaraz | 79c | 291$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Alcaraz | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Alcaraz | 80c | 239.19$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Alcaraz | 79c | 225.85$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…41e9backed Alcaraz | 79c | 214.95$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Lehecka | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Lehecka | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…12ddbacked Lehecka | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Lehecka | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…6939backed Lehecka | 18c | 165.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Lehecka | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed Alcaraz | 71c | 143$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…93e7backed Alcaraz | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Lehecka | 20c | 122.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Lehecka | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Lehecka | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Alcaraz | 79c | 63.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0e2dbacked Alcaraz | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Alcaraz | 80c | 29.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef1…4fa2backed Alcaraz | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6023…a142backed Alcaraz | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Alcaraz | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…86b8backed Alcaraz | 79c | 13.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.