Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80cf132f78b7b55fa56008f95ed1ba09c5bbd82553ff26e04dfa6cf149833f21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Galions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Galions | 12c | 1,998$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 780 | 50%390 W · 390 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…1b0dbacked Galions | 33c | 1,628$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.3 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 1,627$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.02 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 1,437$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.01 | 376 | 47.9%180 W · 196 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Galions | 33c | 1,023$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.81 | 1,225 | 49.6%607 W · 618 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 936.48$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.52 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 887.96$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…2748backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 733.92$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.85 | 321 | 60.7%195 W · 126 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Galions | 27c | 700$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Galions | 34c | 645.06$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed08…e082backed Galions | 32c | 624.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 198 | 60.1%119 W · 79 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Galions | 27c | 560.43$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.32 | 1,630 | 40.1%654 W · 976 L | +48.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf29…834cbacked Natus Vincere | 73c | 551.35$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.86 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Galions | 32c | 524.38$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.8 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8f…6b52backed Galions | 32c | 481.75$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 343.43$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.69 | 650 | 63.2%411 W · 239 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Galions | 30c | 325.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 1,151 | 56%644 W · 507 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Galions | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2eb…8979backed Galions | 31c | 312.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.84 | 183 | 47.5%87 W · 96 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…4476backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 258 | 53.5%138 W · 120 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Galions | 29c | 287.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 287$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3e…5d9dbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 257.35$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 480 | 42.3%203 W · 277 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Galions | 28c | 208.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 605 | 38.8%235 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…42ebbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 170$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…6178backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 150.92$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Galions | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 636 | 46.9%298 W · 338 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 417 | 43.9%183 W · 234 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 98.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Galions | 33c | 71.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 203 | 32%65 W · 138 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 59.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 677 | 63.4%429 W · 248 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 626 | 49.8%312 W · 314 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 611 | 50.6%309 W · 302 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 316 | 61.1%193 W · 123 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…d12ebacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…7e5dbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 204 | 63.2%129 W · 75 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.