Dota2 · resolved market
Will Aurora Gaming win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80fdf7bafdd42c027b0d62477a96d160b7b8b756a8ffdc93a2176aeb29f5e6fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f1f…57c1backed Yes | 12c | 2,529$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 8c | 1,133$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a0…5b6fbacked Yes | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…2f08backed Yes | 7c | 614.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 344 | 42.2%145 W · 199 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Yes | 7c | 555.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Yes | 12c | 555.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…d35bbacked Yes | 15c | 508.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 9c | 449.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62c3…b47abacked Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed Yes | 12c | 339.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 141 | 36.9%52 W · 89 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 181.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 9c | 162.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 9c | 112.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 112.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 100.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aurora Gaming win the EWC Dota 2 Tournamentthis page
- Will 1W win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will BetBoom Team win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will GamerLegion win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will L1GA TEAM win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will LGD Gaming win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will MOUZ win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will Nigma Galaxy win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will OG win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will PARIVISION win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentYes won
- Will PlayTime win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will Rune Eaters win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will Team Falcons win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will Team Liquid win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will Team Spirit win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will Vici Gaming win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will Virtus.pro win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
- Will Xtreme Gaming win the EWC Dota 2 TournamentNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.