MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x817271bb5fd08e8167db88f975796bd4592d640f1d30fa3f5c4cffdbbef5bc86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 51c | 116,219$59,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,052.58 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 36,631$16,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,446.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 34,531$18,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,160.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 11,580$4,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,600.16 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 9,134$4,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,641.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 5,995$3,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,757.7 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 49c | 4,976$2,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,537.58 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 50c | 4,343$2,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,177.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 3,351$1,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.65 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 43c | 2,891$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.69 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 1,777$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 53c | 1,024$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.28 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Under | 53c | 943.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 44c | 797.79$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.03 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 55c | 763.36$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.75 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 615$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 600.99$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.46 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…1589backed Under | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 434$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.06 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 382.17$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 49c | 343.05$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.91 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 53c | 278.81$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 49c | 252.5$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.68 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 49c | 207.84$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 53c | 182.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 50c | 167.78$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.45 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x065c…47debacked Under | 54c | 159.16$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 30c | 135.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 43c | 127.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 126$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Over | 51c | 122.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Under | 48c | 105.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 53c | 103$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Under | 53c | 99.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Under | 49c | 98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 25c | 95.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x586b…52d9backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 54c | 74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 45c | 71.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 74c | 66.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 76c | 52.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 54c | 43.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 80c | 43.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 47c | 38.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 45c | 37.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 54c | 33.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 68c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6458…2a3bbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 50c | 28.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7030…8d7abacked Under | 49c | 27.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 43c | 24.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 52c | 22.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Under | 50c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.