Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81e54c2f74094703413093708964fd39f955952cf8d89ed0c556435db26100fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 1,349$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 584.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 59c | 544.56$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.73 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 399.8$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 355.4$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 301.16$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 15c | 283.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.5 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 14c | 283.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.76 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 259.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 255.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 250.05$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 249.65$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 24c | 241.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.8 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 49c | 214.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.33 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 14c | 214.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.47 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 207.43$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 19c | 206.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.76 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 19c | 202.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.03 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 191$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 24c | 188.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.36 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 187.6$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 174.78$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 43c | 173.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 168.38$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.86 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 30c | 152.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 31c | 151.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 14c | 147$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.88 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 79c | 146.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 28c | 144.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.17 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked Yes | 72c | 139.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 61c | 138.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 77c | 128.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 56c | 126.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 60c | 112.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 111.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 65c | 102.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 62c | 102.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 16c | 101.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 101.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 12c | 98.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 94.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 18c | 91.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 24c | 89.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 14c | 88.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 16c | 86.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 86.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 24c | 83.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 80.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 30c | 67.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 66.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 33c | 64.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 30c | 63.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 80c | 62.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 22c | 61.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 65c | 59.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 40c | 55.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 40c | 53.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…0a5abacked Yes | 80c | 53.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 42c | 53.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 79c | 52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 30c | 50.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 67c | 50.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9232backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 61c | 48.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…cd79backed No | 43c | 46.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 67c | 44.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 24c | 43.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedbe…84d1backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…dd7cbacked Yes | 61c | 39.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…0359backed No | 76c | 37.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 35c | 33.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 43c | 32.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 45c | 30.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eee…18a2backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7711…41e6backed Yes | 78c | 29.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…1c43backed No | 46c | 23.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 78c | 23.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 71c | 23.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 49c | 21.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…cbc4backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.