Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ac6b0f81c3c98664109e48125ba66d78817428ac4de6b0cdd0c1cc389c6121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 41c | 1,927$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.56 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 1,650$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.86 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 26c | 1,465$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.34 | 912 | 28.9%264 W · 648 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 1,160$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 794.8$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.75 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 431$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.41 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 369.9$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 13c | 305.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 262.76$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.11 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 250.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 12c | 248.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 483 | 39.5%191 W · 292 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 38c | 242.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 224.25$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 223.02$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 55c | 219.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 231 | 64.5%149 W · 82 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 217.54$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 214.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,213 | 23.7%525 W · 1,688 L | +86.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 36c | 209.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 235 | 31.1%73 W · 162 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 53c | 184.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.09 | 792 | 40.9%324 W · 468 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 174$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 158.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 131.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 54c | 129.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 55c | 129.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 126.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 125.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 878 | 60.6%532 W · 346 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 116$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 10c | 115$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 10c | 113.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 42c | 112.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 47c | 102.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 190 | 32.1%61 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 101.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 2,140 | 53.2%1,139 W · 1,001 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 100.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,324 | 51.1%676 W · 648 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,730 | 18%311 W · 1,419 L | +73.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 48c | 99.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 15c | 97.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 93.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 1,433 | 52.1%747 W · 686 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 32c | 93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 880 | 49.5%436 W · 444 L | -26.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 51c | 91.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 87.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 32c | 86.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1,186 | 50.8%603 W · 583 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 39c | 84.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 13c | 81.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 46c | 78.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 53c | 78.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 44c | 74.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 916 | 55.9%512 W · 404 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 60c | 74.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 73.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 70c | 71.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 370 | 34.6%128 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 38c | 68.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 58c | 67.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 1,253 | 58.2%729 W · 524 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 65.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 1,612 | 60.4%974 W · 638 L | -22.0wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes | 47c | 64.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 62.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 47c | 62.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 32c | 61.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 781 | 51.9%405 W · 376 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed No | 67c | 59.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 72c | 58.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 39c | 58.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 56.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…10efbacked Yes | 45c | 55.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 54.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 46c | 52.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 473 | 33.2%157 W · 316 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 254 | 40.9%104 W · 150 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,179 | 57.4%677 W · 502 L | +23.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 52c | 47.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 459 | 59.5%273 W · 186 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 490 | 49%240 W · 250 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 42.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1,406 | 30.9%435 W · 971 L | -93.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 586 | 58%340 W · 246 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 39c | 41.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 546 | 27.1%148 W · 398 L | -64.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 152 | 28.3%43 W · 109 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 39.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 54c | 38.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 38.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 37.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 74c | 37.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 53c | 37.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 55c | 36.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 60c | 36.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…6b2dbacked Yes | 44c | 34.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…5f75backed No | 53c | 31.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8416…051cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 44c | 30.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.