Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9383a593c25f52a1d54b51210f803fda93ca27039494898e33d90f88cf41907e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 1,341$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 794.8$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 40c | 504.07$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 449.63$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 74c | 362.28$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 313.61$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 52c | 309.7$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 36c | 295.35$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 252.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 38c | 230$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 227.32$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 218.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 68c | 216.59$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 206.94$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 185.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 44c | 182.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 176.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 34c | 172.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 169.13$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 18c | 162.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 44c | 155.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6530…d760backed Yes | 34c | 145.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 54c | 134.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 127.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 123.35$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 57c | 121.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 43c | 119.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 20c | 117.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…f09abacked No | 62c | 115.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 115.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 56c | 114.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 76c | 113.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 113.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 58c | 113.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 110.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 11c | 102.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8a…ab6dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 98.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 94.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 18c | 90.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 89.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 88.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 87.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 81.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 79.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 69c | 77.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 75.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 61c | 72.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 70.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 40c | 70.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 44c | 69.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 64.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 64.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…d8fcbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 69c | 56.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 37c | 56.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 56.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…9289backed No | 59c | 54.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 58c | 52.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…d4c3backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…c14bbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…0b45backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 54c | 49.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 61c | 49.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 66c | 48.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 63c | 47.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 37c | 44.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…88dabacked No | 67c | 43.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 57c | 42.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 41c | 41.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbe…84d1backed Yes | 59c | 40.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.