NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b18dc2e796fe3ed4713a725e95dcc3c2f193b9b1d2627a7633d557be59674f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 54c | 24,713$13,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,478.23 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 47c | 15,338$7,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,208.73 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 8,570$4,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,027.82 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 866.45$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.33 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Over | 49c | 821.43$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 588.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.5 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 52c | 133$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Over | 48c | 102.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 60.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…b91ebacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 52c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Over | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Over | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 48c | 41.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Over | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Over | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.5this page
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Chargers won
- Chargers vs. ChiefsChargers won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineChiefs won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.