NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aeac62be4d80cbc288e0cec14e032fc245544a1a37ce05f2b7e95ee75989b04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x561b…05c3backed Over | 51c | 35,236$17,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,970.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 11,938$5,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,982.41 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 49c | 10,100$4,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,151 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 49c | 8,435$4,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,285.02 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 49c | 2,930$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.53 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Under | 49c | 1,598$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.2 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 999.96$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.98 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 831.82$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.64 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 52c | 629.52$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.17 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 504.42$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.21 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 48c | 427.52$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.21 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 49c | 281.59$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.61 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 37c | 221.25$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…565dbacked Over | 52c | 190.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…bac0backed Over | 52c | 182.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 106.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…8332backed Under | 51c | 103$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Under | 49c | 97.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1666…68b6backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…d69ebacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb33d…a9edbacked Over | 49c | 47.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed Under | 49c | 43.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 61cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…6510backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…6548backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5e…ca99backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…1dbebacked Over | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Under | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 49c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…571ebacked Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5this page
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Chargers won
- Chargers vs. ChiefsChargers won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineChiefs won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.