NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1700b2259876efb4d4e99f4f8c5efacfecd5fed01d70224495fd36290ce7d66e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6576…6cc5backed Over | 40c | 17,000$6,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,800 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9f…7c29backed Under | 60c | 17,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 39c | 338.03$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.53 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 59c | 175$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ef…40e9backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 59c | 117$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 59c | 107$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 59c | 81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Over | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a8e6backed Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Over | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Over | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Under | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Over | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 29.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Over | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.40per pick | 51cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Chargers won
- Chargers vs. ChiefsChargers won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineChiefs won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.