NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x558856b14dadc683a41c386d435aca4d1140c023c7a31204bd844a5dd7b37869
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chargersof Chiefs, Chargers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Chargers | 53c | 10,857$5,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,102.95 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Chiefs | 46c | 10,605$4,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,879.16 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Chiefs | 47c | 10,576$4,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,970.62 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Chiefs | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Chargers | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.97 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Chargers | 53c | 9,999$5,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.53 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Chargers | 54c | 9,259$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,259.26 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chiefs | 46c | 5,161$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.89 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs | 47c | 5,088$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.05 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Chargers | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Chiefs | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Chiefs | 47c | 2,342$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.74 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed Chargers | 54c | 2,308$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.68 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Chiefs | 47c | 2,304$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Chargers | 54c | 2,263$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.15 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chiefs | 46c | 2,233$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.35 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Chiefs | 48c | 2,076$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.39 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…c2a2backed Chiefs | 47c | 1,400$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Chargers | 54c | 1,389$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.89 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Chargers | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Chiefs | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Chargers | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Chargers | 52c | 802.79$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.34 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Chargers | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.74 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chargers | 52c | 686$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.28 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chiefs | 46c | 648.48$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.28 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a8e6backed Chargers | 55c | 526.31$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.31 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chargers | 53c | 491.74$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.12 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…6282backed Chiefs | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Chargers | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…3b03backed Chargers | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Chargers | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Chargers | 54c | 333$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.18 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Chargers | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Chargers | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Chiefs | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14e…f856backed Chargers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c78…1af0backed Chargers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Chiefs | 46c | 116.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Chargers | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Chargers | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Chargers | 54c | 99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Chargers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Chiefs | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chargers | 44c | 77.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Chargers | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0804…049dbacked Chargers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf044…8e78backed Chiefs | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Chiefs | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…c715backed Chiefs | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…0cbebacked Chiefs | 51c | 39.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Chargers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…d0c8backed Chargers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Chargers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Chargers | 54c | 35.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Chargers | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Chargers won
- Chargers vs. ChiefsChargers won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineChiefs won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.