NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ab26aa0f046c60ecf4c8ea108f96cf5c0a44cf58de12cc15e117974056b7328
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chargersof Chiefs, Chargers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs | 54c | 4,228$2,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282.44 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Chargers | 46c | 4,174$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.05 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Chiefs | 55c | 950$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.5 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Chargers | 45c | 949.5$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.23 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Chiefs | 50c | 750$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6d…4ad5backed Chargers | 50c | 750$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.8wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Chargers | 44c | 343.14$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Chiefs | 56c | 296$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.76 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chargers | 44c | 187.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Chiefs | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Chargers | 46c | 99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chargers | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Chiefs | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Chiefs | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Chiefs | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chiefs | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Chargers | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Chargers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Chiefs | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Chiefs | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Chargers | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Chiefs | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b00…7cbbbacked Chargers | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Chargers | 45c | 28.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Chiefs | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Chargers | 45c | 22.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Chiefs | 55c | 21.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Chargers won
- Chargers vs. ChiefsChargers won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineChiefs won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.