MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b37174790bc0efdd95c12534853f5a5f488b97fde84691ee287ab3f412e37c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 9,012$3,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,366.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 8,073$5,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.84 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 6,099$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,599.31 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 4,677$2,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 59c | 4,084$2,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,405.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 30c | 1,932$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Seattle Mariners | 30c | 908.98$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.34 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 396.55$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 342$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 325$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 204.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 195.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Seattle Mariners | 30c | 191.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 174.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…8c2ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 115.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Seattle Mariners | 59c | 92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 79.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 79.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 78cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Seattle Mariners | 30c | 54.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 52.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Seattle Mariners | 30c | 40.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 37.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 36.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 34.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 29.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…aeb3backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 23.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…4724backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 60cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle MarinersToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.