Earnings · resolved market
Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b9d301e0acf4b0da7a06e568e30d8a583a42c2c285e03ada358f9b72bf0bfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c08…eb90backed Yes | 73c | 1,377$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…6dc8backed Yes | 69c | 721.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.29 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 73c | 684.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.12 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 31c | 592.08$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.94 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 33c | 427.32$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 29c | 400.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 29c | 310$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 26c | 305.61$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 10c | 294.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed Yes | 53c | 209.19$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 36c | 203.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc48a…bfc6backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed No | 42c | 196.67$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 50c | 175$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 40c | 164.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 39c | 159.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 61c | 149.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 135.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a4…d3d2backed Yes | 72c | 134.12$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…5fd0backed No | 29c | 122.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…28c2backed No | 49c | 105.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes | 23c | 98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 88.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 32c | 86.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47a…7418backed No | 48c | 83.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…9c2ebacked Yes | 63c | 82.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 81.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…d40ebacked No | 42c | 76.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 35c | 70.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes | 50c | 69.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 72c | 64.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 40c | 59.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed No | 28c | 59.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed Yes | 65c | 59.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed No | 47c | 57.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 36c | 54.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 39c | 51.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 39c | 50.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…e762backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 60c | 48.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…4323backed Yes | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…9f02backed Yes | 64c | 38.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312e…613ebacked No | 45c | 37.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…bc18backed Yes | 61c | 36.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 36c | 36.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 30c | 34.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 40c | 31.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 30.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 43c | 28.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…4e4dbacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f243backed Yes | 66c | 22.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2902…cefcbacked Yes | 68c | 21.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…c308backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 65c | 17.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.