TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,891
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,891 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x122c…fbedbacked No45c458.95$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.2177151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes51c349.6$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.7117241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No43c338.07$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.041,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes62c232.66$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.5154143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No50c231.65$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.91,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No26c227.05$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.796,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No28c210.61$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x09e7…f4a4backed No46c202.26$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x532b…ccccbacked Yes71c193.9$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.18176.5%62 W · 19 L+11.7wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+29.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No13c190.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.552,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes48c186.38$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9231748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes40c178.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1714833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No49c159.17$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.054,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes49c147.22$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0882742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes48c143.97$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.331,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No47c141.2$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.397,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32fb…fae7backed Yes65c140.21$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.342454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No27c139.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes47c139.47$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4738454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No43c132.9$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0846824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No51c131$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.173,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No22c129.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.597,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No10c120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.419861.1%121 W · 77 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No44c117.85$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.44,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes57c116.16$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.733,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes47c114.56$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.561,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes51c113.19$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7825135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes51c101$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4923129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No33c97.55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3479947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes45c87.54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.069146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e48…9143backed No54c85.75$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.348737.9%33 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes49c79.28$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2837144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes51c77.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9442555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes64c75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.133262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+31.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No51c73.67$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.563,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c72…825ebacked Yes72c69.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.284568.9%31 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No22c68.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.793,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No53c66$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9227852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No49c65.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9327169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes49c63.82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.342,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No45c61.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.362,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes77c59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c53.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.219,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No43c52.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.562,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2335168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x001c…e5edbacked Yes45c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.682250%11 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes60c49.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.661249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c49.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No41c48.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No30c47.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.252,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No52c47.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.444,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba5…c168backed No46c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.73525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471d…32cebacked Yes63c43.4$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8816656.6%94 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No53c43.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8221272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d7c…93b2backed No49c42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.58742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes65c41.07$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.381070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes49c40.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8112438.7%48 W · 76 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No42c40.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.072,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.21,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes37c39.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8715534.8%54 W · 101 L+0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee2b…a97abacked Yes52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.461384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.33per pick52cpaid+55.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5028…a526backed Yes52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5415466.9%103 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x18c3…2a14backed Yes45c38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.92657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes46c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8514053.6%75 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e44…2c35backed Yes52c30.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.328350.6%42 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.12240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked No53c29.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3928344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes41c27.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.033135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.271,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes51c26.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1528546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1585…5839backed Yes56c26.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.595257.7%30 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0187…0200backed Yes48c25.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.396640.9%27 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dbc…d2e1backed No48c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecd9…5565backed No49c24.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0213350.4%67 W · 66 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No46c23.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.631,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes54c22.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2258138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes66c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5644757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No59c21.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9552758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb88…56babacked Yes72c21.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.072080%16 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea25…0447backed Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.810836.1%39 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked No56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.24872.9%35 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5c0…eb75backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f1d…56a3backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.