Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x837b111b50c0008f69aa29f809fc07e4fad88a7bc0b3b2177b8dcc8db90c2c30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 45c | 458.95$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.21 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 51c | 349.6$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.71 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 338.07$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.04 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 62c | 232.66$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 231.65$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 227.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 28c | 210.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…f4a4backed No | 46c | 202.26$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 71c | 193.9$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 13c | 190.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 48c | 186.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 40c | 178.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 159.17$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 147.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 143.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 141.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 65c | 140.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 47c | 139.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 43c | 132.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 131$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 129.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 10c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 117.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 116.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 114.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 51c | 113.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 51c | 101$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 33c | 97.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 45c | 87.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed No | 54c | 85.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 79.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 51c | 77.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 73.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 72c | 69.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 68.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 53c | 66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 49c | 65.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 63.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 61.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 77c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 53.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 43c | 52.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 60c | 49.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 49.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 48.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 30c | 47.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 47.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 63c | 43.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 53c | 43.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 65c | 41.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 40.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 37c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…a97abacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 52c | 30.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 53c | 29.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 41c | 27.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 51c | 26.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 56c | 26.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 48c | 25.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbc…d2e1backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 49c | 24.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 23.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 66c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 21.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 72c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.