TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,957
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,753

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,957 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes16c788.65$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.621,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No59c499.52$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.14,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes42c493.2$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.6443932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes28c352.5$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7738454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No70c297.03$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9681558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes37c271.26$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1417241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No57c265.84$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.121,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed No65c265.57$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.123941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No60c229.65$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.241,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1614113.5%19 W · 122 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes40c195.75$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9457747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes53c187.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013746%63 W · 74 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No61c181.3$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.174,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No61c175.4$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.27,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No57c140.28$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.289,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x743d…5abdbacked Yes47c118.36$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32fb…fae7backed Yes46c118.33$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.432454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes29c117$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.934,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked Yes33c116.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2428946%133 W · 156 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes40c115.96$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2728344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No68c101.83$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5479947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e48…9143backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468737.9%33 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.47234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes43c98.17$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1247538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes34c97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.271,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c82.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.027,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked Yes37c80.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307850%39 W · 39 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c80.28$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.943,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.949,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes41c73.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307163.4%45 W · 26 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No48c73.07$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.191,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes41c70$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.751,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No60c69.36$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.761,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x550e…94dbbacked Yes34c66.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.783740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No63c62.11$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.712,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes40c62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.81,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e61…f87bbacked No67c59.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.322369.6%16 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick75cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…fb01backed No67c59.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.293871.1%27 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes41c59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.044564.4%29 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes53c58.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9920739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes33c58.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4166926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes40c57.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0621272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No52c55.91$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9746824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c55.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes23c55.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.633262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+31.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes42c53.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No62c52.42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.921,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No71c50.21$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.322,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0263538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x001c…e5edbacked Yes62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.12250%11 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa81f…e352backed Yes41c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.49742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes40c49.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.879146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes46c48.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.545,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No41c48.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.411,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c47.1$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.314,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No60c45.41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.162,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No72c44.58$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.622,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes29c42.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.461629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.44,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.42,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes44c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.442555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.13,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No58c37.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.722,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No60c36.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8631748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No35c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No54c34.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.982,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No67c32.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.722,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81fe…80ecbacked No62c31.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.183959%23 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed No63c31.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5833550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd2…87c9backed No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.811344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No60c29.8$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8149359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b67…8c99backed No67c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.49580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked No47c27.86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7713254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c25.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.433,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked No58c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4416935.5%60 W · 109 L-34.5wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-36.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x83dd…1517backed No50c23.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.87957%45 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No59c21.65$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8877151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05f7…22bcbacked No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.813167.2%88 W · 43 L-0.5wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.218567.6%125 W · 60 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aac…1df6backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.051936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-32.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No61c18.63$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No58c17.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.556,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1314…ada8backed No67c14.94$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.