Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83ac19d11585ea0a36fcf22ac0b3274b816c597b2bc9ac1ea4a0bdb31aa8c41f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 21c | 1,379$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.57 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 54c | 1,116$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.42 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 69c | 990.77$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.45 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 3c | 907$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 51c | 835.84$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.35 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 35c | 817.3$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.5 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed Yes | 61c | 734.79$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.71 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b8…50b5backed Yes | 45c | 724.8$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe921…6a6dbacked No | 60c | 678.24$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.94 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…aff3backed Yes | 78c | 565.85$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0d…9f26backed No | 10c | 506.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +308%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 412.47$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.59 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 49c | 389.61$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 67c | 359.68$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.43 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…3558backed Yes | 58c | 340.71$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 28c | 299.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 77c | 296.23$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes | 55c | 222.32$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 216.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed Yes | 44c | 215$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 39c | 214.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.74 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 60c | 209.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.03 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 64c | 200.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.47 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 62c | 197.15$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.94 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 52c | 192.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.35 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 28c | 187.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.77 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 53c | 184.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 8c | 183.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 34c | 175.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked Yes | 29c | 170$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17d…bfb5backed Yes | 62c | 161.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…b669backed No | 62c | 150.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 56c | 146.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb422…b749backed Yes | 47c | 140.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 134.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 60c | 131.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 40c | 125.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…1eebbacked No | 41c | 123.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 45c | 122.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 50c | 121.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 24c | 120.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked No | 13c | 116.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 36c | 116.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3950…e272backed Yes | 43c | 116.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 115.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes | 36c | 113.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…e2dabacked Yes | 44c | 112.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 32c | 106.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…ee19backed Yes | 43c | 103.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383c…d1b8backed Yes | 53c | 100.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f28…d558backed Yes | 49c | 95.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed Yes | 44c | 91.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 42c | 91.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed No | 13c | 90.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 48c | 89.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 54c | 89.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 56c | 88.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9d0bbacked Yes | 33c | 84.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 41c | 84.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 48c | 80.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…c942backed Yes | 63c | 79.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 40c | 78.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…8002backed Yes | 44c | 74.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 41c | 73.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 69.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 38c | 67.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…96c1backed No | 76c | 66.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 66.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 65.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed No | 73c | 64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf309…08a8backed Yes | 54c | 63.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 40c | 63.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…fdbabacked No | 68c | 62.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked No | 27c | 59.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 60c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…fd70backed Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae6d…ded2backed No | 54c | 51.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…2b5ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3218…93cebacked Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca0…63b4backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 45c | 49.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 80c | 49.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…0807backed Yes | 40c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 37c | 47.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 77c | 47.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 48c | 46.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked No | 70c | 46.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…416ebacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.