TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,630
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,630 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c2,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No21c1,379$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.5771823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes54c1,116$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.4295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes69c990.77$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.4510531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed No3c907$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.798017.5%14 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes51c835.84$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.3547834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No35c817.3$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.517243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7458…fa86backed Yes61c734.79$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.712326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b8…50b5backed Yes45c724.8$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe921…6a6dbacked No60c678.24$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.941216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…aff3backed Yes78c565.85$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.353826.3%10 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa0d…9f26backed No10c506.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+308%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes40c412.47$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.593,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No49c389.61$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.12,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes67c359.68$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.434850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa58…3558backed Yes58c340.71$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+135.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17a2…242abacked Yes36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1923850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No28c299.94$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.991,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes77c296.23$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.983826.3%10 W · 28 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-53.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes55c222.32$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.042339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes47c216.13$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0518…6876backed Yes44c215$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.54346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed Yes39c214.37$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7413765.7%90 W · 47 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No60c209.24$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0331649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed No64c200.73$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4715759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No62c197.15$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9486050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes52c192.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3511646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes28c187.48$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7718727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes53c184.91$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5133139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No8c183.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4126339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes34c175.04$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.0416924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf911…8d8ebacked Yes29c170$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12010246.1%47 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe17d…bfb5backed Yes62c161.58$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.17475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+59.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97bf…b669backed No62c150.6$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.841566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No56c146.37$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.848551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb422…b749backed Yes47c140.54$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.761838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No48c134.29$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.553,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed No60c131.69$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.186258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes40c125.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5227079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa874…1eebbacked No41c123.52$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.141346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes45c122.48$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.441,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No50c121.28$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.641,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No24c120.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2727335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08fc…3c2dbacked No13c116.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.75540%22 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes36c116.75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5927246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3950…e272backed Yes43c116.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes38c115.6$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.612,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes36c113.2$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.933333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa9…e2dabacked Yes44c112.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.74540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x988e…bd82backed Yes32c106.71$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7612339%48 W · 75 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c74…ee19backed Yes43c103.27$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.271338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x383c…d1b8backed Yes53c100.6$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.891250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7024010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd4fc…c6aabacked No30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303246.9%15 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+56.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked No51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+104.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6f28…d558backed Yes49c95.9$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc81…e072backed Yes44c91.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.751850%9 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+44.9%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes42c91.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.633,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed No13c90.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.865839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No48c89.97$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.634457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes54c89.48$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8110650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No56c88.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e8…9d0bbacked Yes33c84.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.63616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes41c84.48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6716465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Yes48c80.23$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.513946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x968d…c942backed Yes63c79.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes40c78.93$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3311855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes31c75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.63652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa916…8002backed Yes44c74.8$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.031145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…6732backed Yes41c73.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.183243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No50c69.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes38c67.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.421,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e66…96c1backed No76c66.59$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No30c66.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9712744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c65.94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed No73c64$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.657737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf309…08a8backed Yes54c63.51$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes40c63.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3354037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd555…fdbabacked No68c62.72$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.371643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f8…af3fbacked No27c59.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.382828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No60c57$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.263656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b2…fd70backed Yes50c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae6d…ded2backed No54c51.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.78450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81d7…2b5ebacked Yes39c51.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.11850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3218…93cebacked Yes59c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…2037backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ca0…63b4backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes45c49.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.553974.4%29 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+50.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb7e…1757backed Yes80c49.41$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8811332.7%37 W · 76 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7505…0807backed Yes40c48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.771040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes37c47.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0425536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes77c47.39$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7932548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed No48c46.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.53517.1%6 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-39.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3754…2d4ebacked No70c46.35$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.64245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc76a…416ebacked Yes54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.32528%7 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.