TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,067
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,067 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes14c5,002$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.8718727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd109…94f9backed No61c3,500$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1c…d89cbacked Yes39c3,500$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes3c1,500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4124010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes46c1,468$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.3395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Yes3c1,292$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.398017.5%14 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15b8…50b5backed No53c796.03$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.48666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes28c783.34$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1471823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes26c736.64$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9347834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No64c691.42$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.0517243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No56c589.14$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.7231649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes31c500.74$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8210531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes3c434.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.735232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No66c419.54$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.2328718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes59c413.4$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.146538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes28c376.49$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.858176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No57c308.16$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.3386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No42c299.98$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.9924149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe921…6a6dbacked Yes51c299.42$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.71216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c289.17$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6624…3b00backed Yes25c238.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+109.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes5c231.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.416852.9%36 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes32c230.79$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.92,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2420…109bbacked Yes25c225.45$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes30c223.2$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6124710.5%26 W · 221 L+1.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes46c217.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0518…6876backed No47c216.75$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.294346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7458…fa86backed Yes34c215.8$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.892326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97bf…b669backed Yes57c214.55$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.651566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes7c199.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes50c199.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.991,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes25c190.78$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.595839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes45c182.25$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5911855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1192…634cbacked Yes57c175.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c174.15$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.933,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f24…94f9backed Yes33c167.77$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-50.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f8…af3fbacked Yes29c160.62$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.572828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e63…e468backed No66c150.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.47475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17a2…242abacked Yes67c149.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Yes33c136.88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes9c130$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes55c121.13$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.886258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa874…1eebbacked No61c114.18$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.441346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…6732backed Yes36c111.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.93243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7552…5845backed Yes18c110$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.753234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed No41c109.75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7513765.7%90 W · 47 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes62c106.97$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.851,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes11c104.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.842,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa301…b4efbacked No69c103.75$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.595360.4%32 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe734…c535backed Yes60c100.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes50c100.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3920631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x383c…d1b8backed Yes39c100.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.261250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.362441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc81…e072backed No43c93.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.91850%9 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+44.9%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Yes57c90.19$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.623056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed Yes19c86.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.066137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes42c82.91$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1654037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcca1…f08bbacked Yes30c82.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x988e…bd82backed No41c80.39$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1212339%48 W · 75 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf911…8d8ebacked No66c76.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9510246.1%47 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes39c75.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.653831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes35c71.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes59c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.416465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xec15…3942backed Yes24c66.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.834032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes37c66.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.211436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes22c65.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.371,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes22c63.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9725029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes46c62.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.43826.3%10 W · 28 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-53.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd555…fdbabacked No56c57.78$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.491643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes30c57.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed No60c57.27$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.843974.4%29 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+50.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No45c57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3563656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c56.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.163,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No65c54.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.251,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes21c54.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2392028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9231…b267backed No75c52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca0…63b4backed Yes28c50.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed Yes49c49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0125519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…2037backed No40c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.273243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes40c42.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.122240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes34c42.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4729642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x871b…e68fbacked Yes34c42.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes57c40.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes26c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.521919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaac…7980backed Yes62c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f9…a6ecbacked Yes51c39.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.36650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0943…ca76backed Yes33c39.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6e…6561backed Yes32c38.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.463026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf309…08a8backed Yes64c37.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.06450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90c4…46d8backed Yes55c36.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.993050%15 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed No69c35.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8828329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bdf…98a3backed No45c34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.78549.4%42 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes53c31.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.495540%22 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0967…0c60backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.218860.1%113 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba1…ac85backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.211259.8%67 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.